Gold underwent a historic rally in 2025, its best year since 1979 in terms of returns, with prices rising approximately 65% to reach nearly $4,340 per ounce. A rolling 7-year CAGR of 7.5%, coupled with a declining standard deviation of 9.7%, highlights the asset's ability to mitigate market fluctuations, especially during economic crises.

The 2025 rise was primarily driven by tariff uncertainty and strong demand from ETFs and central banks. Despite a late-year retreat from its Christmas peak (triggered by CME Group margin hikes and year-end profit-taking), gold entered 2026 with a 'bullish' setup, as central banks across Asia and the Middle East continued to buy into the December 31st dip, largely to protect themselves from a potential global debt crisis.

To examine its outlook for the year, we look at a 7-factor framework that evaluates key macroeconomic, market, and risk-related drivers influencing gold’s long-term performance. We group key drivers into three categories: Liquid…