Silver broke above the long-standing double-top resistance near USD 54.50, accelerating sharply to nearly USD 58/oz and continuing higher thereafter. At its peak, silver was up ~94% year-to-date in 2025, outperforming most metals and physical assets, including platinum and copper. On a rupee basis, silver delivered almost triple-digit absolute returns, comfortably ahead of gold over the same period. The GSR has since compressed to ~65 now, lower than its 20-year average of ~70, indicating that the core mean-reversion objective has largely been achieved.

What changed from USD 63 to USD 79: new information and market structure

The subsequent move from USD 63 to ~USD 79 was not a simple continuation of the earlier thesis. It was accelerated by new supply-side actions and short-term structural dislocations:

• China’s export licensing on silver effectively weaponizes supply in a market where China is a key exporter of refined metal
  

• Severe physical stress, visible through persistent premiums in Shanghai and Dubai versus COMEX, alongside deep backwardation in London—signals of immediate physical scarcity rather than speculative excess
  

• Financial market mechanics, including CME margin hikes, which in the current environment have constrained liquidity and hedging activity rather than flushing out speculative froth (unlike prior cycles such as 2011)
  

• Volatility repricing, with options markets explicitly pricing upside tail risk
  

Solar demand, copper substitution — why nuance matters

Industrial and solar demand remain powerful structural drivers, but timing is critical. Copper substitution is real—but slow. Even under aggressive adoption assumptions, it would take approximately four years to reach even 50% substitution due to physical, manufacturing, and efficiency constraints. In the interim, the industry is actually migrating toward technologies such as TOPCon and HJT, which increase silver intensity per watt, not reduce it.

Equally important, solar demand does not meaningfully destruct until silver prices approach ~USD 134/oz. At current levels, margins are compressed, but demand remains largely inelastic. In short: the long-term bull case remains intact—but it does not eliminate short-term volatility or the risk of sharp drawdowns after near-vertical moves.

Timing the entry and exit

One of the hardest truths in investing is accepting that:

• You can make the right decision and still miss the final leg of a move
  

• The objective is not to capture 100% of upside, but to avoid giving back 40–50% during inevitable corrections
  

Missing upside is psychologically uncomfortable. Giving back gains is structurally damaging.

Factors to closely monitor:

• The physical curve, particularly London backwardation
  

• Whether Asian physical premiums persist through consolidation
  

• Signs of tax-related selling, dollar strength, or positioning resets
  

Periods of consolidation or correction, if accompanied by continued physical tightness, merit careful analysis rather than reactive positioning.